Angelos Dassios

Professor in Statistics

Contact details:
Department of Statistics,  London School of  Economics, Houghton Street, London, WC2A 2AE, UK

Email: A.Dassios (

020 7955 7749

A copy of my CV  

Departmental Duties: MSC Quantitative Methods in Risk Management Programme Director

Chair of Examiners Sub-board (QMRM)

Office Hours:
By Appointment


Courses Taught:






Course Materials:

ST226:  See  moodle


ST306:  See   moodle

ST303:  See   moodle

ST301:  See   moodle

Research interests:

COVID-19 Research:

Financial mathematics. Path dependent options. Quantile, Parisian and Asian options. Lvy models.
Stochastic calculus. Excursion theory.
Point processes. Doubly stochastic point processes. Hawkes processes. Dynamic contagion models. Applications in insurance.
Insurance mathematics. Ruin theory. Lvy models.
Stochastic simulation as appiled to financial and insurance mathematics. Exact simulation.
Non-parametric statistics. Tests of association.

I am usually looking for prospective PhD students that show initiative.  Any ideas combining two or more of these areas are especially welcome or even ideas outside them. You are advised to have a look at some of my papers before contacting me.



A Two-Phase Dynamic Contagion Model for COVID-19

    (with Z.Chen,  V.Kuan, J.W.Lim, Y.Qu, B.Surya and H.Zhao)
An edited version will appear in Results in Physics

In this paper, we propose a continuous-time stochastic intensity model, namely, two-phase dynamic contagion process (2P-DCP), for modelling the epidemic contagion of COVID-19 and investigating the lockdown effect based on the dynamic contagion model introduced by Dassios and Zhao (2011). It allows randomness to the infectivity of individuals rather than a constant reproduction number as assumed by standard models. Key epidemiological quantities, such as the distribution of final epidemic size and expected epidemic duration, are derived and estimated based on real data for various regions and countries. The associated time lag of the effect of intervention in each country or region is estimated. Our results are consistent with the incubation time of COVID-19 found by recent medical study. We demonstrate that our model could potentially be a valuable tool in the modeling of COVID-19. More importantly, the proposed model of 2P-DCP could also be used as an important tool in epidemiological modelling as this type of contagion models with very simple structures is adequate to describe the evolution of regional epidemic and worldwide pandemic.

Link to the paper 

Alternative link 

HTML Version 

Covid-19 Research in the Department of Statistics 

Publications: Here is a list without links. Most of them, especially recent ones can be found at  Alternatively look at google scholar and researchgate.

A Two-Phase Dynamic Contagion Model for Covid-19, 2021, to appear in Results in Physics, (with Z. Chen, V. Kuan, J.W. Lim, Y. Qu,  B. Surya and H.Zhao)

Random Variate Generation for Exponential and Gamma Tilted Stable Distributions, 2021, to appear in
Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation (TOMACS) (with Y.Qu and H.Zhao)

Exact Simulation of  Two parameter Poisson-Dirichlet Random Variables, 2021, Electronic Journal of Probability, 26,1-20 (with J. Zhang)

Exact Simulation of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Tempered Stable Processes, 2021, to appear in Journal of Applied Probability (with Y.Qu and H.Zhao)

Explicit Asymptotics on First Passage Times of Diffusion Processes, 2020,  Advances of Applied Probability 52(2), 681-704 (with L. Li)

Exact Simulation of Truncated Lvy Subordinator, 2020,  Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation (TOMACS) 30(3), (with J.W. Lim and Y.Qu),

Azma martingales for Bessel and CIR processes and the pricing of Parisian zero-coupon bonds , 2020, to appear in Mathematical Finance   (with J.W. Lim and Y.Qu)
Exact Simulation of Gamma-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Processes with Finite and Infinite Activity Jump, 2020, Journal of the Operational Research Society, doi10.1080/01605682.2019.1657368 (with Y.Qu and H.Zhao)

Parisian Time of Reflected Brownian Motion with Drift on Rays and its Application in Banking, 2020, Risks, 8(4), 127 (with J. Zhang)
Efficient Simulation of Lvy-driven Point Processes, 2019, Advances of Applied Probability, 51(4), 927-966 (with Y.Qu and H.Zhao)

Exact Simulation of Generalised Vervaat Perpetuities, 2019,  Journal of Applied Probability, 56(1), 57-75, (with J.W.Lim and Y.Qu)

A Variation of the Azema Maringale and Drawdown Options, 2019,  Mathematical Finance, 29(4), 1116-1130 (with J.W.Lim)

A Generalised CIR Process with Externally-Exicitng and Self-Exciting Jumps and its Applications in Insurance and Finance, 2019,  Risks,  7(4), 103 (with J.Jang and H.Zhao)

Exact Simulation for a Class of Tempered Stable and Related Distributions, 2018,    Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation (TOMACS), 28(3) (with Y.Qu and H.Zhao).

Moments of Renewal Shot-Noise Processes and Applications, 2018,  Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 8, 727-752  (with J. Jang and H.Zhao)

Recursive formula for the double barrier Parisian stopping time, 2018,  Journal of Applied Probability,  55(1), 282-301 (with J.W. Lim)

Efficient Simulation of Clustering Jumps with CIR Intensity, 2017, Operations Research,  65(6),(with H. Zhao).

Testing independence of covariates and errors in nonparametric regression, 2017,   Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 45(3), 421-443, (with W. P. Bergsma and S.S. Dhar)

An efficient algorithm for simulating the drawdown stopping time and the running maximum of a Brownian motion, 2017,  Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, 19(1), 1-16, (with J.W.Lim)


A Generalised Contagion Process with An Application to Credit Risk  2017, International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 20(1), 1-33, (with H. Zhao).

The joint distribution of Parisian and hitting times of Brownian motion with application to Parisian option pricing, 2016, Finance and Stochastics, 20(3), 773-804 (with Y. Zhang).

A study of the power and robustness of a new test for independence against contiguous alternatives, 2016, Electronic Journal of Statistics, 10 (1). pp. 330-351 (with W. P. Bergsma and S.S. Dhar).

An analytical solution for the two-sided Parisian stopping time, its asymptotics, and the pricing of Parisian options, 2015, Mathematical Finance  doi:10.1111/mafi.12091 (with J.W.Lim).

A risk model with renewal shot-noise Cox process, 2015, Insurance: Mathematics & Economics, 65, 5565 (with J. Jang and H. Zhao).

A consistent test of independence based on a sign covariance related to Kendall's tau,  2014, Bernoulli , 20(2), 1006-1028 (with W. P. Bergsma).

A Markov chain model for contagion , Risks 2014, 2, 434-455; doi:10.3390/risks2040434) (with H. Zhao).

Parisian option pricing: A recursive solution for the density of the Parisian stopping time, 2013, SIAM J. Financial Mathematics, 4(1), 599-615 (with J. W. Lim).

Stochastic boundary crossing probabilities for the Brownian motion, 2013, Journal of Applied Probability, 50(2), 419-429 (with X. Che).

Exact simulation of Hawkes process with exponential decaying Intensity, 2013, Electronic Communications in Probability , 18:0 (with H. Zhao).

A risk model with delayed claims, 2013, Journal of Applied Probability, 50(3), 686-702 (with H. Zhao).

A bivariate shot noise process for insurance , 2013, Insurance Mathematics and Economics, 53(3), 524-532  (with J. Jang).

Ruin by Dynamic Contagion Claims,  2012, Insurance Mathematics and Economics, 51(1), 93-106  (with H.Zhao).

Double barrier Parisian options , 2011, Journal of Applied Probability , 48(1), 1-20 (with S. Wu).

A dynamic contagion process, 2011, Advances in Applied Probability , 43(3), 814-846 (with H. Zhao).


A double shot noise process and its application in insurance , 2011, Journal of Mathematics and System Science. (with J. Jang).

Perturbed Brownian motion and its application to Parisian option pricing, 2010, Finance and Stochastics , 14, 473-494 (with S. Wu).

On barrier strategy dividends with Parisian implementation delay for classical surplus processes, 2009, Insurance Mathematics and Economics, 45, 195-202 (with S. Wu).

The distribution of the interval between events of a Cox process with shot noise intensity, Journal of Applied Mathematics and Stochastic Analysis, 2008,  Article ID 367170 (with J. Jang)

Bonds and options valuation using a conditioning factor approach , Management Dynamics, 2007, 7(2), 25-69 (with S. Basu).

The square root process and Asian options, Quantitative Finance, 2006, 6(4), 337-347. (with J. Nagaradjasarma).

On the quantiles of the Brownian motion and their hitting times, 2005, Bernoulli, 11(1),  29-36.

Kalman-Bucy filtering for linear system driven by the Cox process with shot noise intensity and its application to the pricing of reinsurance contracts, 2005, Journal of Applied Probability, 42(1), 93-107 (with J. Jang).


Pricing of catastrophe reinsurance & derivatives using the Cox process with shot noise intensity, 2003, Finance and Stochastics , 7(1), 73-95  (with J. Jang).

Cox process with log-normal density, 2002, Insurance, Mathematics and Economics, 31(2), 297-302 (with S. Basu).

Interpreting the Beta-Geometric in comparative fecundability studies, 1998, Biometrics, 54(1), 140-146 (with R. Crouchley).

Sample quantiles of additive renewal reward processes, 1996, Journal of Applied Probability, 33, 1018-1032.

Sample quantiles of stochastic processes with stationary and independent increments and of sums of exchangeable random variables, 1996, Annals of Applied Probability, 6(3), 1041-1043.

The distribution of the quantiles of a Brownian motion with drift and the pricing of related path dependent options, 1995, Annals of Applied Probability, 5(2), 389-398.

Martingales and insurance risk, 1989, Communications in Statistics, Stochastic Models, 5(2), 181-217, (with P. Embrechts).


Here are links to a few of my papers as well as some working papers:

An efficient algorithm for simulating the drawdown stopping time and the running maximum of a Brownian motion (with J.W.Lim).

A dynamic contagion process (with H. Zhao).

Double-barrier Parisian options (with S. Wu).

On barrier strategy dividends with Parisian implementation delay for classical surplus processes  (with S. Wu).

Point processes with contagion  and an application to credit risk (with H. Zhao).

A Dynamic contagion Process and an application to credit risk (with H.Zhao).

Ruin by dynamic contagion claims (with H.Zhao).

Ruin by delayed claims (with H.Zhao).

Perturbed Brownian motion and its application to Parisian option pricing (with S. Wu).

Barrier strategies with Parisian delay (with S.Wu).

Parisian ruin with exponential claims (with S.Wu).

Ruin probabilities of the Parisian type for small claims (with S.Wu).

Brownian excursions in a corridor and related Parisian options (with S.Wu).

Brownian excursions outside a corridor and two-sided Parisian options (with S.Wu).

Two sided Parisian options with a single barrier (with S.Wu).

Semi-Markov model for Excursions and Occupation time of Markov processes (with S.Wu).

The distribution of the interval between events of a Cox process with shot-noise intensity (with J. Jang).

On the quantiles of the Brownian motion and their hitting times.

Pricing of Asian options on interest rates  in the CIR model (with J.Nagaradjasarma).

The square root process and Asian options (with J. Nagaradjasarma).

Quantiles of Levy processes and applications in finance (a review)

On the quantiles of the Brownian motion and their hitting times.

Pricing of catastrophe reinsurance and derivatives using the Cox process with shot noise intensity (with J. Jang).

A Cox Process with Log-Normal Intensity (with S. Basu).

Webpages of a few co-authors:

Other Links:
Hongbiao Zhao

Yan Qu

Jiwook Jang

Wicher Bergsma

Hawkes process Wolfram MathWorld